UNRAVELING THE CAUSES OF THE ICE AGE EXTINCTIONS

Was it humans or climate change that caused the extinctions of the iconic Ice Age mammals (megafauna) such as the woolly rhinoceros and woolly mammoth?

For decades, scientists have been debating the reasons behind these enigmatic Ice Age mass extinctions, which caused the loss of a third of the large mammal species in Eurasia and two thirds of the species in North America.

Now an extensive, interdisciplinary research team, involving over 40 academic institutions around the world and led by Professor Eske Willerslev’s Centre for GeoGenetics at the Natural History Museum, University of Copenhagen, have tried to tackle the contentious question in the biggest study of its kind. And the answers are far more complicated than ever imagined.

The study, published online today in the journal Nature, reveals that neither climate nor humans alone can account for the Ice Age mass extinctions. Using ancient megafauna DNA, climate data and the archaeological record, the findings indicate dramatically different responses of Ice Age species to climate change and humans.

For example, the study shows that humans played no part in the extinction of the woolly rhino or the musk ox in Eurasia and that their demise can be entirely explained by climate change. On the other hand, humans aren’t off the hook when it comes to the extinction of wild horse and bison in Siberia. Our ancestors share responsibility for the megafauna extinctions with climate change.While the reindeer remain relatively unaffected by any of these factors, the causes of the extinction of the mammoths is still a mystery.

Eske Willerslev said “Our findings put a final end to the single-cause theories of the Ice Age extinctions, and suggests that care should be taken in making generalizations not just regarding past and present species extinctions but also those of the future; the impacts of climate change and human encroachment on species extinctions really depends on which species we’re looking at.”

However, Eline Lorenzen from the University of Copenhagen and lead author of the study said, “We do find that climate change has been intrinsically linked with major megafauna population size changes over the past 50,000 years, supporting the view that populations of many species will decline in the future owing to climate change and habitat loss.”

Despite the unparalleled amount of data analysed in this study, the authors find no clear pattern distinguishing species that went extinct from species that survived, suggesting that it will be extremely challenging for experts to predict how existing mammals will respond to future global climate change.

Paleontologist Eric Scott from the San Bernardino County Museum, a coauthor of the study, agrees. “Pleistocene extinctions have potential to shed light on extinctions in our own time,” he says. “But trying to shoehorn Ice Age losses on multiple continents, at different times, into a one-size-fits-all explanation is limiting, and unjustified. Our study confirms that teasing out real explanations for the Ice Age die-off—in a manner that advances our understanding of ongoing extinctions today—remains very much a work in progress.”